Early Seasons Greetings!

Although the first official Snotel measurement at C1 is still a few weeks away,
here is an early look at snowpacks so far.

As of December 9, 2003, Niwot (C1) snowpack is 65%/72% (snow water equivalent/
cummulative winter precipitation, respectively), but Wolf Creek is 118%/109%.
The South Platte basin is 70% and 70%.
Other Colorado basins (SWE/cummulative precipitation)are:
Yampa/White 119/112, Upper Colorado: 98%/86%,
Arkansas: 69%/74%, Upper Rio Grande: 92%/87%
San Juan, San Miguel, Dolores, Animas: 93%/87%.

The usual early season caveat applies to all these numbers; small changes
in precipitation are reflected by relatively large changes in "percent of normal"
values.

What might we expect this season?  The signals are a little mixed.
NOAA reports ENSO to be near neutral as of November 6, and the 2003/04 outlook
to be "El Nino/ENSO-neutral.  However, the character of the snowfall events that
have blessed Niwot Ridge so far, and the snowpack development over the
western US, look more like a La Nina condition.  By this, I mean that at Niwot,
the snowfall has been mainly orographic, and the western US snowpack is
clearly much greater in the Pacfic NW compared to the southwest.
To date, Washington, Idaho, and parts of Wyoming are above average (one WA basin
is 157%), and Oregon, California, NM, and Arizona are well below average
(one NM basin is 54%).  In Colorado, the San Juans have tended to get more
snow than the Front Range (see Niwot vs. Wolf Creek), also consistent with La Nina.
So, time will tell, and ENSO may not be the prime predictor this year.

Until the end of the month, Merry Christmas, everyone,
and may it be a white one!

Mark L

Sno Tel Data  Niwot Ridge, C-1
Snow Water Content (inches)
Values are for the end of given month
except as noted for May and June